Advanced analytics for industrial and economic decisions

Your options when supply can no longer be assumed

Tradeint.ai shows governments, investors and industry where supply, trade routes and markets are exposed, and sets out the options: what to build, where to invest, what to hold in reserve, and which dependencies to act on first.

Start with a question

Why this work

In April 2025 China introduced export licensing on seven rare earth elements. Vehicle manufacturers across several countries lost access to magnets. Within two months, plants in the United States, Japan and Europe had paused production.

Magnets are a small share of the cost of a car. That is what made them so easy to miss.

In 2026 the disruption to Gulf shipping made a different point. India imports urea, and also produces it domestically using gas that is substantially imported. Much of the finished product and much of the feedstock move through the same strait. Domestic capacity had shifted the exposure one step upstream rather than removing it. For producers inside the strait, the same disruption closed the route to market.

Both dependencies were known. Where in the chain they would bind, and how quickly, was far less clear. We find where a chain will bind and what the options are.

Where leverage sits

Value accumulates towards the end of a chain, which is where investment tends to follow. Supply concentration usually sits earlier, in stages that are cheaper and less visible. The two rarely coincide.

Ore

Separation

Metal

Magnet

Motor

Vehicle

Bar height: share of chain value Stages where world supply concentrates

Illustrative, for the permanent magnet chain. An intervention placed at the wrong stage buys less resilience than its cost suggests.

How we help

Where investment does most good

Which stage of a chain to build, in which location, and in what sequence.

Which dependencies are structural

Some reflect the shape of world supply. Others are a purchasing decision that could be changed next year. Trade volumes alone will not separate them.

Where the leverage sits in a chain

Investment goes to assembly, because that is where the jobs and the visible value are. The chokepoint can be one or two steps upstream.

Whether an alternative is really an alternative

A second supplier buying from the same source is not a second source. Neither is a domestic plant whose feedstock arrives through the same strait as the imports it replaced.

What a disruption would do

Which industries are hit first, and in what order. We put a figure on the loss where the evidence supports one, and say so where it does not.

What to do about each dependency

Whether to build capacity at home, shift to suppliers you can rely on, hold a reserve, or leave it as it is.

Where one plant can feed another

Within an industrial zone or region, which by-products could replace imported inputs, and what the exchange would need to be commercially viable.

What a plant, cluster or region would take

Technoeconomic analysis of the option itself: the inputs, energy and water it needs, and what it costs to build and run.

How we work

The work is quantitative and is delivered as a written brief that answers one defined question. Each brief names its sources, states its confidence, and keeps what the data shows separate from what the analysis infers and what remains uncertain. It maps the chain in question: its stages, where supply concentrates, and the routes it travels. Where a decision needs a business or investment case, the findings are set out so they can go into the appraisal.

The work spans strategic analysis of industrial resilience through to technoeconomic analysis of plants, clusters and regions. The trade and industry analysis uses established methods: input-output analysis, measures of concentration and dependence, and substitution analysis. It runs on authoritative public data (CEPII BACI trade flows, OECD input-output tables and UN Comtrade), at the level of countries, products and industries, so findings can be checked.

The data is open to anyone; the work lies in tracing a dependency through each stage of a chain and testing whether the alternatives are independent of one another. It complements supplier-level mapping and does not replace it. Questions about a specific plant, zone or portfolio add client data and engineering analysis.

The deliverable is a document, handled like any other — there is nothing to install, host or accredit.

Who the work is for

Organisations that own a problem of this kind and have capital or policy to commit to it.

Governments and agencies responsible for economic security, industry policy and supply chain resilience
Sovereign and state-owned investors and infrastructure funds deciding what to build, buy or back
Producers and manufacturers whose inputs, routes or markets are concentrated
Industrial zone, port and logistics operators deciding what to attract and build

The work informs decisions on where to invest, what to hold, and which dependencies to act on first.

Who we are

Tradeint.ai is an Australian firm, founder-led. Its founder is a chartered professional engineer (CPEng, FIEAust) with a PhD in machine learning and a career in research and chief engineering roles across defence, critical minerals, energy and infrastructure. The work applies established economic methods to questions of trade and industry. The person who leads an engagement writes the brief, and specialists from our network join where a question calls for them.

Confidentiality

Each commissioned brief is confidential to the client who commissions it. We do not disclose the question, the data supplied or the findings, or the fact of the engagement, without consent. Any potential conflicts are identified and disclosed before an engagement begins. Where a study is produced for several clients, that is stated at the outset.

A commissioned brief on public data needs nothing from the client beyond the question. The same data is open to others, so we may be asked a similar question by someone else; we answer it afresh and carry nothing across. Where an engagement involves client material or a sensitive question, hosting and information security are agreed before work starts, and can include hosting within a jurisdiction the client specifies.